World Trade Policy is not Free Trade
Darren Hinze
2007
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This paper although a draft it has references listed so you can do additional research if you feel the need. NOTE: If you are ripping this information for a particular class in school be sure to add my web site as a reference. I only note this because some of the plagarism checkers have found my posting (before I put them here). I would not want you getting kicked out of school for copying my questionable work.
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World Trade Policy is not Free Trade
This paper will summarize some of the views of Daniel Ikenson, Associate Director of the CATO Institute’s Center for Trade Policy Studies and his views on free trade policy in, How U.S. Trade Policy Can Overcome Doha’s Failings (June, 2006). Daniel maintains a consistent view throughout the paper that the United States is a key contributor and likely the force that has caused the Doha Development Agenda to be ineffective and essentially a failure in the world market. His opinion holds that the United States has little respect in matters of world trade and has a history of exploiting underdeveloped nations and imposing hardship on low-income family’s in the United States. Daniel Ikenson proposes that by opening the United States borders to fully-open free trade it will help the greater world economy, bring prosperity to the poorest of families and farmers in underdeveloped nations and strengthen American low-income families against poverty. I understand many of the points that Ikenson is making in his paper, however, it is not the place of the American family and the United States in general to save underdeveloped countries from their poverty. Determining trade standards and using tariffs to maintain profitable operations for our homeland farmers and industries is the duty or the US Government policy makers. Keeping the best interest of your home country is not only right it is proper. If other countries wish to trade in a level playing field they must have an economy of scale in the area they are seeking trade relations or take the best deal you can get based on your economic size.Ikenson begins by noting that “the relationship between openness to trade and economic growth is well documented”, when a country opens its ports to foreign trade it can be expected to prosper and the more open the trade agreement the faster the growth can be experienced. The negotiators at the Doah Development Agenda spoke well about opening trade but are slow in acting on those words. “The problem is that negotiators have forgotten, or just fail to recognize, how economies realize the benefits of trade”, says Ikenson. Reciprocal agreements that “induce multilateral liberalization are arguably preferable to unilateral liberalization…” could be considered a fact. It is better to agree and build relations faster and receive mutual benefit at a higher rate. Ikenson, appears to believe that only one party agreeing to open their ports is better than no one, this too I think we can agree on. However, he continues in his discussion to assert that the negotiator with the stronger hand should yield because of the greater good toward all parties. Definitely an altruistic view but not a very capitalistic one. Ikenson discusses that to yield your position may cause some economic difficulties; however, because of the stronger parties position they can weather the pain of the trade imbalance better than the weaker opponent. I believe he should be writing a paper focused on how to explain to the 7th generation farmer that he will be out of a job. It is better for the farmer to lose his farm, possessions, and file for bankruptcy because it is easier for the United States farmer to take the economic hit than for the poor farmer in an underdeveloped country to live another year on the same dirt floor he calls home. Ikenson believes that “the ‘all or nothing’ ethos that dominates trade negotiations is simply fallacious”. The characterization should have been stated, “all play or no one plays”. Ikenson holds that the United States can create world change by itself by removing or reducing the restrictive tariffs that are already in place. A trade agreement is not necessary for the US to receive some benefit from a relaxed trade atmosphere. The belief is that the US can show support for it’s citizens and businesses by “pursuing a policy of unilateral trade liberalization”, and that the tariffs that are considered assets to use as bargaining chips are actually liabilities and would serve a better use if they were removed resulting in a reduction of material costs coming into the US. The cost of US production is too high and the removal of tariffs on raw materials and components would alleviate some of this overhead.Mercantilist MisconceptionIkenson cites David Dollar and Aart Kraay of the World Bank referring to Nobel Prize winners on both sides of the argument agreeing that openness to international trade accelerates development. He does not, however, define “openness”. The article continues, questioning why there is a level of resistance to the various trade agreements if being “open” is beneficial. The problem is a misconception. Economist mostly agree on the problem and the benefits of a resolution, however, the politicians who have the task of garnering support and orchestrating approvals have a different perspective. The politicians generally believe that “exports are good and imports are the price we pay for them”. The belief that exporting is superior to importing and that the way to determine who is in the superior position is by viewing the trade balance as the score, has led many negotiators to minimize their concessions and use tariff rates as bargaining chips. Ikenson identifies this misconception and the political ideal that free trade for my exports and not my imports, as a key problem in all the preceding negotiations. This view gives strength to protectionist lobbies. To quote the article, “Advocacy of self-serving preservation of the status quo by domestic interests can be portrayed as consistent with the national interest when policymakers keep score that way” (Ikenson, 2006). To protect your country’s infrastructure and to be a protectionist when you are an elected official is reasonable. Perhaps the wrong individuals are being educated on the potential upside to open trade. Ikenson cites another article titled “Free Trade Agreement Are Working for America” where the document presents 18 bullet points promoting the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). The sample is listed here:• U.S. exports to Chile grew 33.5 percent in 2004, making the United States Chile’s leading trade partner.• The U.S. trade surplus with Singapore tripled after the first year of the U.S.- Singapore FTA, reaching $4.3 billion.• In the first quarter after the U.S.-Australia FTA went into effect, the U.S. trade surplus with Australia grew 31.7 percent to $2.13 billion.• Together, U.S. exports to Chile and Singapore grew $4 billion in the first year of our FTAs with those countries. (Cafta Facts, May 2005)“Seventeen of the 18 bullet points in that document touted the export benefits or export potential” to Central America and other countries, Ikenson takes considerable issue with the United States focus on export as a part of Free Trade Agreements. As a result of CAFTA, Chile has entered the United States as a major Avocado fruit grower (Thacher, 2007). They grow and export to the United States a Californian variety and a local Chilean (smaller) variety of Avocado. Their production dwarfs the production of both California and Florida crops, however, their primary barrier is transportation and preservation of the product. The result of their entry into the market was to cause the prices of Avocados to stabilize at a high price. Chile can produce crops during the winter months and have allowed the California and Florida crops to stay on the trees longer resulting in fresher produce being delivered to a domestic market. If you are an Avocado fan you will enjoy this open trade because of the longer growing season in South America, the Chilean crops will be filling the void created by the 2006 and 2007 freeze that destroyed much of the California crop. But the greater availability of product will do nothing to lower the prices at the produce counter. You may wonder what has prevented Chile from destroying our own production sources in the market. That protection is handled by the fruit packers who refuse to purchase and pack foreign fruit when domestic fruit is in season. As you may have noticed this is not a fully-open system. There must be controls and someone must be in charge of domestic protection, in this case it is a packing house. Alternately a product that does not have the same issues and sensitivity to growing cycles and plant investments is the sugar industry. Sugar was handled very carefully under CAFTA. The product can be produced and stored almost indefinitely giving it the potential to flood the US market. As a result sugar imports were increased by such a small amount they are almost insignificant. The article estimates the increase being approximately 1.5 teaspoons of sugar per US citizen per week. Ikenson, makes no mention of the increase and benefits of the fruit growers but apparently believes that US sugar growers should have to compete with foreign sugar. I believe it is unlikely that the foreign product could be priced much lower than domestic product because of the current costs in transportation. However, barring the transportation expense the impact to our sugar industry, including sugar beet farmers, cane growers, and refineries could be devastating based on the ability to ship greater quantities and the extended storage life. The report by Ikenson does acknowledge that the United States Trade Representative “affirmed some significant benefits of import liberalization” quoted in a section of the 2006 report to Congress regarding the president’s trade policy. “In terms of imports, the United States is among the most open markets in the world. Although we have experienced a healthy increase in our exports, imports have grown even more rapidly. These imports have lowered costs and increased choices for American consumers. Free trade [imports] enhances competition, contributes to price stability, and helps support high rates of non-inflationary growth. This helps keep interest rates low so more Americans can afford to buy homes and small businesses can have greater access to capital. The World Trade Organization Uruguay Round and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) lowered U.S. tariffs and provided an average savings of $1,300 to $2,000 a year for a family of four. That means parents can more easily afford clothes, shoes, and toys for their children, and all Americans have more choices— from tropical fruits to consumer electronics. Accordingly, American companies can produce higher-valued goods more efficiently and price these goods more competitively when they are able to purchase parts and components from overseas. Reducing trade [import] barriers also encourages higher productivity and higher incomes. Partially because of trade [imports], Americans have average real incomes 40 percent greater than the nearly 700 million people living in other countries classified as “high income” by the World Bank” (US Trade Policy Agenda, 2006).
Just as it appears the tide of the article is about to turn and Ikenson may recognize that our trade negotiators understand the benefits of open trade he comments; “That ringing endorsement of the benefits of imports is then spoiled with the concluding non sequitur”, from the Trade Policy Agenda, “These are among the many reasons why President Bush has pledged to continue to open up the U.S. market so long as our trade partners open up their markets” (US Trade Policy Agenda, 2006). Again, Ikenson makes the point that any protectionist approach will completely kill the deal. However, because we have been trading in the open market and making foreign products available in our marketplace we have been able to grow and develop a stronger economy. Ikenson admits to this one point, “the United States is better off than the rest of the developed world because our markets are more open” but he spins the statement concluding, “we will open them further only on condition that others do too! It seems that there is no political space for speaking the truth unconditionally”. Where is the fallacy here? The USTR and the president acknowledged that open trade has many benefits but unless other nations recognize this fact and open their ports we have no cause to open further. It was already agreed that the US is the most open trading partner in the world and we have benefited greatly. So should we just swing the doors open wide without any assurances that others will be receiving our goods also? I think not. Ikenson even agrees to this point stating that “the economic benefits can be much greater if the liberalization is mutual”, so he should accept that some levels of protection for our most fragile industries or industries that are employing many of our citizens is not only necessary but ethical. Open Market BenefitsA conclusion of the International Monetary Fund cited in the paper states, “Although there are benefits from improved access to other countries’ markets, countries benefit most from liberalizing their own markets” (IMF, 2001). “Most of the Unites States political rhetoric equates the benefits of trade with the benefits of exports and treats openness at home as the cost of those export benefits.” It is true that the presidents trade policy seeks to find export avenues for American products in order to bolster our own production and to help employ our citizens. As we read earlier there is a clear understanding that openness is a profitable proposition, but the United States can not exclusively be a consumer society. We need to keep the money moving here at home. “In late 2002 the United States offered a proposal in the WTO negotiations that would eliminate all tariffs on nonagricultural trade by 2015” making our country totally open to the worlds manufactured products. The proposal went on to say that the “elimination of U.S. tariffs would significantly benefit U.S. families and consumers through lower import taxes and a more competitive economy.” Ikenson, believes that this kind of “advocacy … remains rare [and] convincing members of Congress of the merits of an agreement still seems to require evidence that the export potential will more than make up for the “disruption” caused by imports.” There would be some disruption in domestic production of competing items, and a concern regarding whether domestic products could compete would impact employment rates across the country. Currently it is happening in the furniture market where the imported prefab furniture is cost effective for a consumer market that is interested in short term value. These are the products we find readily available in discount department stores and warehouse outlets. However, the true value of an item is found in its longevity of service life. For example, an inexpensive computer desk (of prefabricated design from some country that can not print accurate assembly instructions in English) that is in my child’s bedroom has possibly two more years of life remaining from its total five year life. Compared to the solid oak desk I sit at now, the prefab model is a poor choice for longevity. The cost differential of the two desks is, in my opinion, completely outweighed by the undetermined life expectancy of the sturdier desk, which is now over 15 years old. Although we can and should be more open, bear in mind that we can not be a purely consumer society otherwise we will fall prey to low standards of cheap labor. This in turn would likely force the price of quality products out of the reach of the middle class income family. According to Ikenson, “Research shows that people living in countries that are more open to trade attain higher incomes and achieve higher living standards than citizens of countries that are relatively closed” and the United States has done a fine job of maintaining trade openness and growing prosperous. Ikenson, however, believes the most compelling reason for removing protectionist barriers is because it is “good for the U.S. economy” regardless of the actions of other countries. Nowhere has Ikenson discussed the benefits of United States exports and the value of sharing the burden or consumerism. His assumption is that opening the gates to the U.S. economy will promote others to buy U.S. made products. The assurances of fair trade should not be left to promises at the negotiating table, this is a weak position for sure. The Council of Economic Advisors compared the trend in overall consumer prices to the trend in import prices. The findings showed that overall consumer prices rose much more than the prices of imports. Between 1990 and 2004 the average annual increase in import prices was just 0.6 percent, while the rate was 2.2 percent for overall consumer prices. (CEA, 2006) The CEA also found that “between 1997 and 2004, real prices fell for an array of highly traded goods, such as audio equipment (-26%), TV sets (-51%), toys (-34%), and clothing (-9%). In contrast, real prices rose for largely non-traded products, such as whole milk (+28%), butter (+23%), ice cream (+18%), peanut butter (+9%), and sugar and sweeteners (+9%)” (CEA, 2006) Ikenson further cites that “an earlier study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas produced similar findings but went further to demonstrate that consumer price inflation was most pronounced for services that cannot be traded” the study included inpatient hospital services, admission to sporting events, cable television, college tuition, dental services, and funeral expenses. (W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm, 2002). The CEA claims that “welfare gains from variety growth alone have been estimated to be a remarkable 2.8 percent of GDP, which translates into gains of over $4,000 for the average American family of four.” Ikenson makes an assumption that imports allow consumers to benefit from a wider variety and better quality of products, services and prices. A wider and diverse variety of products is a benefit; however, because a family has saved $4,000 per year because of reduced costs it does not mean they are receiving a higher quality product. Perhaps Ikenson has not shopped at his local Wal-Mart or Kmart and experienced the quality of low cost. It is possible that he believes that having the discounted products readily available will boost the economy by adding jobs, investors, and production workers. My concern is that giants such as Wal-Mart, regularly put the small mom and pop stores and startup businesses that sell these imported products out of business. If imported products are sold at a price level that is lower than production costs permit in the United States are we then required to reduce our minimum wage requirements in order to compete as a producer? Where is the producer’s benefit? The imported products would need to be unfinished or component parts for assembly in the U.S. for them to be of value. Alternately, the U.S could ship semi-complete parts and raw textiles overseas, boosting our production and aiding production and employment in underdeveloped countries. Actually, this is not an “alternate” because this is what we are currently doing, but apparently this is not fair in the opinion of Ikenson because we are forcing an export in order to receive the benefit of lower finished production costs. The U.S. International Trade Commission reported for 2002-2005 that U.S. exports increased the most to countries that increased the most in imports to the United States, and exports increased the least where imports to the U.S. increased the least. This could easily account for the textile trading or raw products such as cotton cloth to countries that are doing finish work on clothing and other apparel. The more materials we produce and ship contribute to more items we receive in return to place in our stores. Ikenson’s method would open the doors to the solicitors and take all they could provide without regard to the effects on our domestic economy. A New Tariff Method To prevent trade disparities it is necessary to have a new solution, or at the least a different paradigm. I advocate for the protection of our markets and the development of our natural resource, ingenuity. The United States has a history of being myopic in new industrial arenas. We have given away technology such as the VHS format for recorded media, the U.S was forced to buy the technology back as finished products from overseas and the format was pushed into the market overtaking the Beta (a superior) tape format. We have given away production technology used to produce everything from denim jeans to microchips, for the prospect of purchasing cheaply made finished products in order to save on the high wages required to produce the items domestically. Protection of new markets is a necessity in a global economy. If a new or underdeveloped product or process is not provided appropriate protections from being undermined by foreign influence we will loose our position as a provider in the growing free trade economy. A new spin on an old 18th century theory emerged as “New Trade Theory.” The theory was initially associated with Paul Krugman in the early 1970s, however others have contributed to this theory and the list includes James Brander, Avinash Dixit, Gene Grossman, and Elhanan Helpman among others. (Maneschi, 2000). The new spin added a current focus to using carefully applied tariffs in order to protect industries in their infancy. The theory depended on complex mathematics and careful tracking to determine economies of scale. The theory is held as being overly burdensome to prove its effectiveness, however, the theory’s premise of protecting infant industry is its strong point. The protected industry is fostered to grow, hopefully, into an international super-industry. This growing industry is typically seen as being monopolistic domestically. The expectation is that the resulting strength of the new industry is such that they can compete in an arena where there are significant barriers to entry for competitors; the goal is Monopolistic Competition. Alternately, the new company could make such a forceful entry into an existing market that they would conceivably take over an existing niche and push out the competition and be a world wide Monopoly. The Japanese automotive industry prior to its opening to foreign export is typically cited as being protected by a policy similar to the New Trade Theory. “The new trade theory is primarily meant to explain trade in manufactures subject to increasing returns” (Maneschi, 2000). In essence the theory is a method to protect specific industries that can not compete in a larger market effectively enough to grow or survive its infancy. The policy of using a limited tariff can also be implemented to protect foreign workers against unfair and sweatshop type labor conditions. Instead of imposing a tariff discount based on specific origin or specific industry, it could be used to reinforce appropriate human rights. For example this excerpt of an article posted in the Washington Post in 2004 referring to working conditions in a factory in Shenzhen, China. “Inside the factory, amid clattering machinery and clouds of sawdust, men without earplugs or protective goggles feed wood into screaming electric saws, making cabinets for stereo speakers. Women hunch over worktables, many hands bandaged and few covered by gloves, pressing transistors into circuit boards. Most of the 2,100 workers here are poor migrants from the countryside who have come to this industrial hub in southern China for jobs that pay about $120 a month. A sign on the wall reminds them of their expendability in a nation with hundreds of millions of surplus workers: If you don’t work hard today, tomorrow you’ll have to try hard to look for a job.” (Washington Post, 2004) The company mentioned here is providing products for sale at your local Wal-Mart. The reduced tariffs make these items available at a low cost to you the consumer. Keep in mind the better life you are providing to the poor farmers in rural areas around Beijing. The article concludes with a brief description of the cost of this trade arrangement. “Domestic manufacturers, labor groups and some politicians point to China’s record trade surplus with the United States, estimated to have totaled $120 billion last year (2003), and accuse Beijing of manipulating its currency, condoning the exploitation of its workers and competing unfairly, resulting in the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs.” (Washington Post, 2004) The United States continues to have these same issues with China and its trade policies. Locating a store in China that is selling American products at a fair price is a difficult chore. American products are rare, but there is a Kentucky Fried Chicken very near the Summer Palace in Beijing. What are we actually trading? Logos and Icons?Americans can accept their toys and coffee in pretty packaging labeled “Made in China”, and “Product of Vietnam” and benefit as consumers in a world economy but the hidden costs will rise to a point where they will be undeniable. Free trade is not really free, there are costs on both sides some trade inexpensive labor for human rights, others will trade abundance for unemployment. Henry George stated the balance nicely as he concluded his book, Protection or Free Trade, copyright 1886, “By thus harmonizing the truths which free traders perceive with the facts that to protectionists make their own theory plausible, … seemingly irreconcilable differences of opinion may unite for that full application of the free-trade principle which would, secure both the largest production and the fairest distribution of wealth.” (George, 1886)
ResourcesAngel Gurría, Secretary-General of the OECD, Doha: the low hanging fruit, , published: 21 August 2006 Summary of SFAS No. 123 (December 2004 Version), http://www.oecd.org/document/4/0,2340,en_2649_37431_37295108_1_1_1_37431,00.html
Office of the United States Trade Representative, “Free Trade Agreements Are Working for America,” Cafta Facts, May 26, 2005, www.ustr.gov/assets/Document_Library/Fact_Sheets/2005/asset_upload_file204_7872.pdf
Greg Thacher, CalFlavor Packinghouse manager, California Avocado buying and packing house. Interview 2/20/2007.
Office of the United States Trade Representative, “2006 Trade Policy Agenda and 2005Annual Report,” March 2006, p. 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF), “Global Trade Liberalization and the Developing Countries,” November 2001.
Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President (Washington: Government, Printing Office, 2006), p. 155-156.
W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm, “The Fruits of Free Trade,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2002 Annual Report, p. 12.
Andrea Maneschi, How New is the “New Trade Theory” of the Past Two Decades?, Paper No. 00-W27, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, July 2000. http://www.vanderbilt.edu/Econ/wparchive/workpaper/vu00-w27.pdf
Peter S. Goodman and Philip P. Pan, Chinese Workers Pay for Wal-Mart’s Low Prices, Washington Post, Sunday 8 February 2004;
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/55/696.html
Henry George, Protection or Free Trade, copyright 1886, republished by Robert Schalkenbach Foundation, 50 East 69th Street, New York, 1949.